Journal of Education and Health Promotion

Forecasting Iran national health expenditures: General model and conceptual framework

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

. Mahmood Kazemian
. Zhaleh Abdi 1
. Mohammad Meskarpour‑Amiri 2

1 National Institute for Health Research, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

2 Health Management Research Center, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

Abstract
BACKGROUND: Forecasting the future trend of health expenditures is an important step toward 
sustainable financing of health‑care systems. This study aims to develop a conceptual framework 
for forecasting Iran health spending growth.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: At first, we concentrated on the general model and conceptual 
framework of health expenditure projection by reference to a broad literature review and smart 
classifications of the origins of health spending and indicators. At the second step, we developed a 
time series modeling for econometric estimation and forecasting national health expenditure without 
restrictive assumptions except for current laws and regulatory environment. In the third step, we 
tested the accuracy of model by forecasting Iran real per capita health expenditures (2017–2025).
RESULTS: The results of the literature review represented a distinct classification of the origins 
of health spending and indicators, applicable to any health system and health spending projection 
model. Furthermore, the model of expenditure forecasting shows the power of certainty of no spurious 
estimation, assessment of the normal state of a health system, and test of the accuracy of forecasting 
results. The projection by the Iranian health system database showed that the real per capita health 
spending will grow 43 percent till 2025 in the absence of any unforeseen disturbance in the future.
CONCLUSIONS: The presented model provides estimates that are compatible with actual trends of 
health spending and can be applied to forecast health expenditure in the near future. The forecasted 
image of Iran’s health spending growth implies that health authorities need to concentrate more on 
the growth rate of the health budget and its fiscal space in the near future.

Keywords

Forecasting
health expenditures
health‑care financing
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Journal of Education and Health Promotion
Volume 12, Issue 3
March 2022
Pages 1-7

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