Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Clinical decision‑making is not only stressful to physicians, but also to patients and
even their companions. Thus, managing uncertainty in clinical decision‑making is essential which
requires knowing its origins. Therefore, this study aimed to understand determinants of uncertainty
in clinical decision‑making from the perspective of clinical physicians.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a qualitative study which is done during October to November
2020. An in‑depth interview is performed with 24 specialists of clinical groups including obstetrics,
surgery, internal medicine, and pediatrics, working in teaching hospitals affiliated to Iran University
of Medical Sciences. All the interviews were recorded, transcribed and analyzed according to the
steps suggested by Graneheim and Lundman. The interviews were analyzed through comparative
method. Then, the interviewer created initial codes, categories, and key concepts and sent them to
fourteen physicians for member check.
RESULTS: According to the participants’ view, determinants of uncertainty in clinical decision‑making
consisted of three themes: individual determinants, dynamics of medical sciences, and diagnostic
and instrumental constraint. Individual determinants can be related to the physician or patient. The
dynamics of medical sciences could be explained in two categories: variation of medical science and
complexity. Diagnostic and instrumental constraint category could be also explained in subcategories
such as lack of efficient diagnostic tests and unknown etiology.
CONCLUSION: To curb uncertainty, the more accessible way is considering interventional programs
with a focus on individual determinants related to physicians, such as strengthening doctor–patient
relationships, and considering related mandatory retraining courses to reduce insufficient knowledge
of physicians.

Keywords

1. Kim K, Lee Y‑M. Understanding uncertainty in medicine:
Concepts and implications in medical education. Korean J Med
Educ 2018;30:181‑8.
2. Djulbegovic B, Hozo I, Greenland S. Uncertainty in clinical
medicine. In: Gifford S, Gabbay D, Thagard P, Woods J (eds.)
Handbook of the philosophy of science. Ch. 10. Vol. 16.
Philosophy of medicine. Elsevier; 2011. p. 299-356.
3. Smith M, Higgs J, Ellis E. Factors influencing clinical decision
making. Clinical Reasoning in the Health Professions 2008;3:89‑100.
4. Bahadori M, Raadabadi M, Ravangard R, Mahaki B. The barriers
to the application of the research findings from the nurses’
perspective: A case study in a teaching hospital. J Educ Health
Promot 2016;5:14.
5. Alamneshan F, Naji A. Relationship between uncertainty in
decision‑making and job characteristics among nurse managers.
Quarterly Journal of Nurse Management 2015;4:61-8. [Persian]
6. Dhawale T, Steuten LM, Deeg HJ. Uncertainty of physicians
and patients in medical decision making. Biol Blood Marrow
Transplant 2017;23:865‑9.
7. Alam R, Cheraghi‑Sohi S, Panagioti M, Esmail A, Campbell S,
Panagopoulou E. Managing diagnostic uncertainty in primary
care: A systematic critical review. BMC Family Practice.
2017;18:79.
8. Nevalainen M, Kuikka L, Pitkälä K. Medical errors and
uncertainty in primary healthcare: A comparative study of coping
strategies among young and experienced GPs. Scand J Prim
Health Care 2014;32:84‑9.
9. Cousin G, Schmid Mast M, Jaunin-Stalder N. When
physician-expressed uncertainty leads to patient dissatisfaction:
A gender study. Med Educ 2013;47:923‑31.
10. Simpkin AL, Khan A, West DC, Garcia BM, Sectish TC,
Spector ND, et al. Stress from uncertainty and resilience among
depressed and burned out residents: A cross‑sectional study.
Acad Pediatr 2018;18:698‑704.
11. Croskerry P. A model for clinical decision‑making in medicine.
Med Sci Educ 2017;27:9‑13.
12. Djulbegovic B, Elqayam S. Many faces of rationality: Implications
of the great rationality debate for clinical decision-making. J Eval
Clin Pract 2017;23:915‑22.
13. Simpkin AL, Armstrong KA. Communicating uncertainty:
A narrative review and framework for future research. J Gen
Intern Med 2019;34:2586‑91.
14. Strauss A, Corbin J. Basics of Qualitative Research. Sage
publications; 1990.
15. Khankeh HR, Hosseini SA, Rezaie L, Shakeri J, Schwebel DC.
A model to explain suicide by self‑immolation among Iranian
women: A grounded theory study. Burns 2015;41:1562‑71.
16. Timmermans S. The engaged patient: The relevance of
patient–physician communication for twenty‑first‑century health.
J Health Soc Behav 2020;61:259‑73.
17. Wray CM, Loo LK. The diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of
medical uncertainty. J Grad Med Educ 2015;7:523‑7.
18. Stephens GC. Medical Student Experiences of Uncertainty
Tolerance Moderators: A Longitudinal Qualitative Study.
Harvard Press. Frontiers in Medicine 2022;9:207-42.
19. Guenter D, Fowler N, Lee L. Clinical uncertainty: Helping our
learners. Can Fam Physician 2011;57:120‑5.
20. Baker SG, Prorok PC. Breast cancer overdiagnosis in stop‑screen
trials: More uncertainty than previously reported. J Med Screen
2021;28:185‑92.
21. Han PK, Klein WM, Arora NK. Varieties of uncertainty in health
care: A conceptual taxonomy. Med Decis Making 2011;31:828‑38.
22. Finkel MA, Alexander RA. Conducting the medical history.
J Child Sex Abus 2011;20:486‑504.
23. Hazelwood RR. Wives of Child Molesters Within the Family.
Springer; 2015. p. 31‑9.
24. McKelvie S, Moore A, Croxson C, Lasserson DS, Hayward GN.
Challenges and strategies for general practitioners diagnosing
serious infections in older adults: A UK qualitative interview
study. BMC Fam Pract 2019;20:1‑9.
25. Leech AA, Dusetzina SB. Cost‑effective but unaffordable: The
CAR‑T conundrum. Oxford University Press; 2019.
26. Kelly A, Panush RS. Diagnostic uncertainty and epistemologic
humility. Springer; 2017.
27. Baraz S, Memarian R, Vanaki Z. Learning challenges of nursing
students in clinical environments: A qualitative study in Iran.
J Educ Health Promot 2015;4:52.
28. TirottaD, DuranteV. Decision‑making under uncertain conditions:
The internist, as a director of the diagnostic/therapeutic pathway
in grey zones. Int J Clin Med Cases 2018;1:101.
29. Swoboda DA. Negotiating the diagnostic uncertainty of
contested illnesses: Physician practices and paradigms. Health
2008;12:453‑78.